InsightsMarket thesis

Why Emerging Markets Need Open Payment Networks

Closed payment networks have served the global economy well for fifty years. Visa and Mastercard alone settle ~$15 trillion in annual purchase volume. SWIFT carries a billion messages a year. ACH, SEPA, and their equivalents operate at extraordinary scale and reliability. They are remarkable feats of institutional engineering.

And yet, they are not serving the world equally. Emerging-market businesses pay more, wait longer, and get rejected more often than their developed-market counterparts. The reasons are structural — and they explain why the next generation of payments infrastructure will be open by default, with emerging-market operators as the primary beneficiaries.

The shape of the access gap

A SaaS company in San Francisco can sign up for Stripe in an afternoon. A SaaS company in Nairobi often cannot. Even when accepted, the EM operator faces higher fees, longer settlement, and intermittent service. Some of this is rational risk management on the part of the gateway; much of it is the legacy of closed-network economics.

  • Stripe is unavailable or restricted in dozens of countries.
  • Many EM businesses incorporate offshore (Delaware, Singapore, BVI) primarily to access payment infrastructure that should not be jurisdiction-dependent.
  • Bank-to-card-network onboarding requires sponsor relationships that are scarce in many markets.
  • FX spreads are routinely 100–300 basis points higher in EM corridors than in major-pair corridors.

Why closed networks have this property

A closed network has perimeter logic. To accept payments, a merchant must be onboarded by a member acquirer; to settle, the acquirer must have access to sponsoring banks; to operate at all, the merchant must fit the network's risk policy. Each layer of permissioning is calibrated to the network's largest, most homogeneous markets. EM operators sit at the perimeter and pay the perimeter tax.

Network operators are not malicious; they are optimising for their own portfolio risk. But the result is structural: the operator in Lagos, Karachi, or Manila is treated as higher-risk-by-default even when they are running the same business as their San Francisco counterpart.

Open networks: the alternative

An open network has no perimeter. Anyone with internet access can hold, send, or receive value. Stablecoins are the leading example. A business in Lagos can hold USDC against a Solana wallet without a bank relationship. A buyer in Frankfurt can pay that wallet in seconds. Local fiat conversion happens through licensed on/off-ramps as needed — but it does not gate access to the network.

The openness is not ideological. It is operational. Permissionless network access is the most efficient way to extend payment infrastructure to the long tail of internet-native businesses that closed networks cannot economically onboard.

What changes for emerging-market operators

Five practical shifts.

1. Direct USD-denominated commerce

An exporter in Vietnam can invoice in USDC, settle on-chain, and convert to VND on-demand. The 1–4 day SWIFT delay disappears. The FX spread compresses from 100+ bps to single-digit bps. The operational footprint (no NOSTRO accounts, no correspondent chain) drops to a single off-ramp relationship.

2. No offshore incorporation requirement

When stablecoin rails are licensed in the operator's home country, the operator can stay incorporated locally. They retain local tax base, local employment, and local regulatory engagement. The 'go offshore to get payments' migration ends.

3. Lower-friction global hiring

A startup in Cairo paying a contractor in Buenos Aires used to face days of SWIFT and material FX cost. With stablecoin payouts they pay in seconds, at mid-market, without either party touching a bank. Talent markets become more genuinely global.

4. Better access to global liquidity

PayFi liquidity pools — which we covered in our dedicated piece — fund instant settlement on global flows. EM operators access the same instant-settlement experience as their developed-market counterparts because the underlying liquidity is global, not segmented by market.

5. Permissioned infrastructure with local accountability

Open networks do not mean unlicensed networks. The on/off-ramps, custodians, and platforms operating on top of stablecoin rails are licensed in their home jurisdictions and subject to AML/CTF, sanctions, and tax reporting obligations. The combination — open rails, regulated edges — is the right architecture for the next decade.

Country case studies

India

UPI is the most successful domestic payment network in the world — 12+ billion transactions per month, sub-second settlement, free at the point of use. But UPI is domestic. For the millions of Indian freelancers and software exporters, the cross-border leg is still SWIFT and still painful. Stablecoin rails layered on top of UPI create a single architecture for domestic + cross-border: receive USDC, off-ramp to UPI, pay rent.

Brazil

Pix did for Brazil what UPI did for India. Pix-to-stablecoin bridges are now processing nine-figure monthly volumes for SMEs, creators, and exporters. The Banco Central do Brasil has been pragmatic about licensing, and the result is a vibrant on/off-ramp ecosystem that runs at internet speed.

Nigeria

Nigeria is a stress test for the open-network thesis. Restrictive FX policy and rationed bank-rail USD have produced a parallel stablecoin economy that some estimates put at $50B+ in annual volume. The CBN's gradual move toward regulated VASP licensing in 2025–2026 will determine whether that volume runs through licensed local institutions or stays offshore.

Policy: an opportunity, not a threat

EM governments have a choice. They can license stablecoin infrastructure locally — and capture the institutional growth, tax base, and regulatory authority that comes with it. Or they can decline, in which case the volume flows offshore to whichever jurisdiction welcomes it. The countries acting decisively on licensing in 2025–2026 (Singapore, UAE, Hong Kong, Brazil, the Bahamas) are the ones that will host the next decade of cross-border payments infrastructure.

Bottom line

Open payment networks are not a hypothesis. They exist, they work, and they are processing hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Emerging-market operators benefit disproportionately because they have been disproportionately disadvantaged by the closed-network status quo. The shift is structural, and the operators (and governments) that align with it earliest will compound the advantage over the next decade.